Thursday, October 1, 2009

The Secret Weapon of George Osborne, to reduce the deficit to The shadow chancellor "may succeed where others have failed

Over the next nine months should be the youngest chancellor George Osborne since Lord Randolph Churchill in 1886 to just over 39 years old. By most standards it was a great success. The problem is that neither the city nor the wider electorate, the idea of a thirty page like control over the economy. Ask someone from the Square Mile, why not by the shadow chancellor of the convinced, and they can also create a preference for political maneuvering on the economic theory, his insistence on the obligation to Gordon Brown's spending plans by 11 Hour, or unwise holiday in Corfu, what it takes to really his youth.

The last six months have certainly an almost imperceptible change. Perhaps the fact that the triumph of the conservatives is anything but inevitable. Perhaps because Osborne was a little more sure-footed in response to the economic crisis, Alistair Darling. Maybe it's just a feeling of resignation, which surrounds the city. However, Osborne has achieved a kind of reluctant acceptance.

It is noteworthy, however, that he, despite a series of policy mistakes. At the beginning of the crisis, he opposed plans to work to pump liquidity into the economy. In this case, the entire Western world has to do exactly. He suggested that they prevent or at least skeptical before the Bank of England, have the policy of quantitative easing, which is increasingly being felt in the United Kingdom contributed to a severe recession. The two episodes showed the eyes of the key figures in the city, the economic naivete and political expediency. His proposal for the regulation of the financial system of the Bank of England cut to move not only better, especially in the city think that if the Financial Services Authority has made mistakes, he has done a pretty good job, and that Mervyn King is private appalled to have an additional responsibility to take.

These errors are comparable to the developments in the opposition. Incontinent Before 1997, Gordon Brown play politics as an ATM, but most never the book of Acts. What is important is the sudden change in the economic consensus. It is now clear that there is little choice but to hope for a change of government at the next election. This is not partisan. If the markets continue buying British national debt - and keep the nation are on the sea - they must be convinced that the government is prepared to significantly reduce the deficit. Despite the relatively harsh words yesterday, Alistair Darling, the work has always incapable of such efforts. Part of the reason the bond markets has been relatively optimistic, which is a staggering collapse in tax revenues and rising deficits, that they take a victory for the Conservatives if the prospect of testing d Alan Johnson, in short, a hung parliament which is likely, they in panic.

Will Osborne and David Cameron to be able to respond to such hopes? The Conservatives have already projects. Although the NHS budget has been saved, it-tiny increases in real terms, at least in the first few years. (How Osborne was by his intrigues of the former Tory chancellor, Howe and Lawson, Lamont, Clarke, informed health is the most difficult to tame department to find the best low-hanging fruit elsewhere.) Budget development is in line with the international obligations of United Nations, which is against some conservatives raise until they mean, how much more money that actually is. But everything else is vulnerable to significant cuts - education, health, transport, and especially the costs of social assistance, which represents more than 25 pence of every pound spent by the government.

These cuts are politically feasible? Thatcher, the size of the state in large part by the privatization of industry and not the roots and welfare reform. But in conversations with fund managers in the city, the cash into investments of their clients UK Conservatives call a secret weapon in their efforts to be successful where it is not: A Responsibility Office pour next budget. By well-known economists and tax experts (Robert Chote, the current director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies is populated) is the first choice for the presidency, his task will be to tell the government what it needs in order to reduce the deficit. Gordon Brown, the city that has not been sent reassured the United Kingdom in an inflationary spiral through the sale of the interest rate of the Monetary Policy Committee, the OBR is designed to do exactly the same for the deficit is not.

It's a start, but whether it is sufficient to provide coverage of slashing public sector jobs that are in probably the biggest wave of strikes in recent memory, is another question. It is clear that Osborne's successor seems to Lord Randolph Churchill to be almost assured. The former is less encouraging, however: Churchill took less than six months before resigning after a dispute over military spending. His political career never recovered.

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